One of misleading arguments about why the Western Balkans should join EU is, that this would cause relaxation in the region and secure peace. Now, true, this is indeed one important factor, but there’s something more important for Europe, than bringing more stability to one small region. 

The Western Balkans are important simply because the region is in the heart of Europe, deep behind the border lines of the EU. The Western Balkans are not the Caucasus and not even Ukraine, which is very important country. The Causaus is not even attached to Europe, and Ukraine, even though very important, it’s still just a neighbour. This is not the case with the Western Balkans. The Western Balkans are not European periphery or just a neighbour, the Western Balkans are intercepting and “blocking” important routes inside EU itself, intercepting EU mainland. The Western Balkans are extremely, strategically important to EU (look at the map). The only country, outside of Western Balkans, which is deeply into Europe but not part of the EU, is Switzerland, but, unlike Switzerland, countries of the Western Balkans could swing. It’s unlikely, but possible. 

As you can see on the map, EU, with the Western Balkans inside, would be far better interconnected. EU is of course aware of this, and there’s no doubt EU is deeply committed to this task, but some of the countries, like France and the Netherlands, are sending worrying messages of further delaying of integrations for the Western Balkans.

Let’s be clear here, none of the countries of the Western Balkans won’t join EU before 2025. That’s six plus years from now. The last big enlargement of EU happened in 2004 when 10 countries join EU, mostly countries from the former Eastern Bloc.  They needed only 15 years, starting as communist countries, to end in EU in 2004. As you can imagine, they wasn’t really ready to join, but, unlike today, leaders in nineties, with live memories of the Cold War, understood tremendous historical duty to integrate those countries, before something bad could happen. 

Serbia started this process in 2000 pretty much right after the fall of Milosević, and by now that’s the process already lasting 19 years, the process which won’t end at least by 2025. Albania and North Macedonia started this process even earlier, the process which already last almost 30 years, and both, Albania and North Macedonia didn’t even started negotiating accession. Of course, many things depend on these countries, but not everything. The reason of delaying is the lack of will inside EU itself.

For example, when Poland joined EU in 2004 it had GDP of about 6.7 thousand dollars per capita. Bulgaria, when joined in 2007, had about 5.9 thousand dollars. Serbia today has about 7.5 thousand dollars per capita, and Montenegro 8.7 thousand. Take into account that four years, between 2008 and 2012, are pretty much lost because of the global economic crisis, without which both, Serbia and Montenegro, would by now exceed 10 thousand dollars per capita. And the economies of the Western Balkans are growing. As we already know none of these countries will join before 2025, which means by 2025 these countries will have far better economies than many of the countries when joined. But, as we see, further delaying is quite possible beyond 2025. 

There’s more examples of European countries receiving fast pace: Spanish dictator Francisco Franco died in 1975, and the first election are held in 1977. Spain become a member of the European Economic Community (predecessor of EU) in 1986, having in previous years a budgetary deficit of over 5 per cent (the countries of the Western Balkans meet EU threshold requirements for both, budgetary deficit and public debt, unlike many EU members) and bigger political crisis. Now, yes, Spain was wealthier country, relative to Europe in those days, but with far bigger and far more unstable economy, which is far more dangerous than, yes, poor, but small and disciplined economies which are growing. 

Now, of course, some could argue EU is tired of enlargement, but this is trivial argument. The Western Balkans are a small region. Serbia and Montenegro, countries closest to join, have less than 8 million people combined. There’s no endless pool of countries waiting to join EU. The EU project is pretty much finished, with only the Western Balkans, Ukraine and Moldova as possible members (we can pretty much agree that Turkish accession is dead), but Ukrainian possible membership definitely going beyond 2030. The Western Balkans can’t change much in EU, with just about 15 million people, of which only less than 8 million by Montenegrin and Serbian membership are tangible by now. What the Western Balkans could do is impose terrible headache if possibly swing toward Russia and Turkey. Serbia is more important country than Croatia or Bulgaria simply because Serbia is located in central position on the Balkans, with Belgrade as Southeastern European hub, with two important European rivers meeting each other with corridors coming from Asia and Piraeus as well.  A jewel for Sino-Russian economic partnership. 

Of course, I don’t think Serbia will swing, but it’s not something which doesn’t causing worryings. China don’t like Russian violent business in Ukraine or in the Baltics, but for the Balkans it’s more than happy to welcome Russian soft power. Serbia would find better economic interest inside EU, but we shouldn’t kidding each other, people see that only as possibility which is facing endless delaying. Once, people and politicians in the West think they have upper hand toward the rest of the world and that EU don’t have alternative for these countries. This are changing. China has a lots of money. By now, China already exceeded Eurozone economically. Things are changing, world is changing. They would be glad to invest money inside Europe, but, if they can, avoid EU regulations. Like in Switzerland. Like in UK in the future. Hopefully EU won’t learn on the harder way that it needs this crucial region. 

In that vein, French messages are bad and worrying. They are probably just for the sake of internal political struggle, because memberships of these countries can’t have a major impact on France. This is not a game, but the question which could cause long run consequences, going far beyond one electoral cycle. Macron seems like a meaningless leader who is playing with fire. It’s one thing when Marine Le Pen and Alternative for Germany, the enemies of EU, sending their pathetic, populist messages, but completely another when someone like Macron doing so. He was recently in Belgrade and his messaging is rather depressing. 

The end point is, of course the countries of the Western Balkans needs to negotiate its membership. It’a a well defined process, with some unique issues from country to country. This is not a problem, the problem are messages which are sent, the messages which didn’t received other current members when they were in the process. Saying to countries which are deeply in negotiating – and they put tremendous effort in this path – that they will become members god knows when, is a slap in the face. And, as I show, there’s absolutely no need to do that in 2019. Saying to Serbia and Montenegro they won’t become members by 2025 in 2022 or in 2023 is fine if they don’t meet conditions, but doing so in 2019 is unnecessary. 

To summarize: it’s not really about the date, this is trivial as well. The exact date is irrelevant – 2025, 2026, 2028… Just name it. It’s irrelevant. Even the status of Kosovo is hyped and trivial. It’s about possible consequences which could once again change geopolitical landscape in Europe. Did France really want this? I don’t think so. And the reason for that could be, well, trivial. Forget about stick and the carrot policy, it won’t work forever. We need to put more honest partnership, and not just on the paper: the Balkans need EU, but vice versa is true as well. It would be sad for Europe if we learn this on the harder way once again.