One and a half months of the bitter war in Nagorno-Karabakh seems coming to an end. The end of war started the unfolding national disaster for Armenia and a terrible deal for Azerbaijan, and, maybe, more importantly, Turkey. In this complete mess, not surprisingly, one player is coming as a sole victor, and that is, of course, Russia.

Even though aesthetically speaking, the current situation is not looking pretty for Russia because they let its ally lose the war, this by no means weakening the position of Russia in the Caucasus. Exactly the opposite! Once Armenia used to swinging between Russia and the West, but this war show complete dependence on Russia. Armenians have a lot of reasons to be bitter at Russia because of the results of this war, but on the other hand, they become completely aware of their dependence on Russia.

Further, something which looks like a partial military success for Azerbaijan and Turkey is actually a strategic defeat. When the initial euphoria end, the realities will start emerging on the surface for Azerbaijan: the horrendous amount of casualties, deteriorating strategic situation in the region, and the lost independence on diplomacy. I wrote in my first article about this, where I said that the local dispute between Armenia and Azerbaijan enters a whole new level with the Turkish entrance in the region, making both sides rather proxies than a cause.

No one is happy with the Turkish role in the region. Excluding Armenia, Azerbaijan had good relations with its neighbors. Now with the new Turkish ambition in the region, Azerbaijan has hostile Armenia, anxious Russia and Iran, with Georgia trying to be neutral. But more important than that is this fact: the Russian “peace-keeping” force entering Nagorno-Karabakh. In the past, Azerbaijan could hope to solve the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh, but now that’s gone. Now, Nagorno-Karabakh is under the Russian “peace-keeping” force, and once this “peace-keeping” force enters, they’re not going anywhere. We see that in Transnistria, Crimea, in the Donbas, and, more importantly for Azerbaijan, they could saw this in neighboring Georgia. In the past, Azerbaijan could hope it could solve the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh with a military operation if all diplomatic efforts fail, but now, that’s gone. Strategically speaking, Azerbaijan degraded its position through this war instead of improving it.

In my previous article, I talk about the possibility of war between Russia and Turkey and conclude that the war is avoidable only if Russia stays the main factor in diplomatic developments in the region, and thus if Turkey steps down in one way or another. Now Russia has Azerbaijan as well firmly under its fist through its presence in Nagorno-Karabakh: it can bother, destabilize, playing with nerves, deciding in-and-out, only if Azerbaijan deviate in the Russian geopolitical projection. If the current, or any future leader of Azerbaijan lost the nerve and miscalculate, as Saakashvili did in Georgia, the military defeat and the tragedy will be instant.

If Armenia and Azerbaijan come to mutual terms and separate territories on historic Nagorno-Karabakh and the Azerbaijan occupied territories avoiding war, they could save lives, preserve the independence, and choose its diplomatic path and the future. Now the dynamics of the region and the future of these countries will depend on the Russian geopolitical projection, which is fun as it sounds.