Many people claim that Brexit is an ideological project, and that’s true. However, for most of the Conservatives and Boris Johnson, Brexit is only about power. The Conservatives in the UK embraced Brexit as much as it’s necessary to stay in power. Boris Johnson is by no means different. He is an embodiment of this approach. The very fact that he full-heartedly supported Brexit in the 2016 referendum was simply because he didn’t believe that the Leave vote would win. He, as Michael Gove, could continue claiming that the UK is holding all the cards and that David Cameron is not fit to put all the cards on the table with the EU. That would be a good bargaining chip for the new leadership contest.

We need to go back in time, some year and a half ago, during the last days of Theresa May, and see the sad prospect of the Conservatives’ ability to stay in power. They lost miserably in the European election by the Brexit party, and their approval ratings fell below 30%. The Conservatives never had control over Brexit because Brexit is an unleashed monster that can’t be controlled or satisfied. It is going to eat all of its children unless it gets tired and loses its wilderness. Nigel Farage is very well aware of this, and that’s why he is just poking the animal with the stick and then runs for his life, far away from power and responsibility. But Boris Johnson is different because he is in power, and he needs to deal with the animal: he will tame the beast or get eaten. Everyone is putting their bet on the last one, but I think some new horizons are opening with Biden winning the election in the US.

Donald Trump in the White House was a big hope for Brexit. During Trump’s tenure, Brexiteers could wave with the new trade deal with the US as compensation in the case of the No-deal Brexit. The problem with the US deal was that this deal was only tactical in nature. The US trade deal is not beneficial to the UK, and with Donald Trump in office, it could only degrade the UK food standards, something which is widely unpopular in the UK and Europe in general. And make no mistake, with some ruthless guy like Donald Trump, the UK wouldn’t get any concessions which doesn’t benefit the US food lobby. Even if the UK got a deal with the US, the populist effect would fade until the election in 2024. However, the effect of a bare-bone or a No-deal Brexit would strike the UK economy with a very weak prospect of reversing it because the EU and the US deal under Donald Trump don’t go hand in hand. If the Conservatives want to stay electable in 2024, they need to make Brexit work somehow, and that wouldn’t be possible under the presidency of Donald Trump. He would require a full divergence from the EU, which is ultimately a disaster for the future of the UK. Ultimately, even Brexiteers would blame the Conservatives for the economic fallout. Brexit has no platform or reasoning, and it can’t be satisfied.

So how the new presidency of Joe Biden could play into the hands of the Conservatives, even though their initial reaction to Biden was reckless? It will give them an excuse for a possible comprehensive deal with the EU. If the UK enters the new year in hard Brexit, and without any hope for the US deal that would alleviate the economic and strategic hardship, even the biggest Brexit nutter could chill and accept that Brexit doesn’t work. If this happens, it will become politically possible for Conservatives to make a comprehensive deal with the EU in 2021 or 2022. That could make even a deal with the US possible because with Biden the two wouldn’t cancel each other. But for that to happen, the hot Brexit head needs to chill, and the defeat of Donald Trump is a step forward. In the long term, the Conservatives needs to make Brexit work! Some tactical victories won’t work, and the US card with Donald Trump in the office had only a PR effect, which would diminish under the hard Brexit and the economic fallout.

That said, even though the victory of Joe Biden is a blow for Brexit as an ideological project, it could well play in the Conservatives’ hands. After all, the thing the Conservatives care about the most is staying in power, and that would be hardly possible under Donald Trump and with his cronies in the form of Reform UK, which could still sway a lot of hard Brexit supporters. The one thing the Conservatives don’t want is choosing between the hard Brexit wing and the center of the party. Anyone they chose would make them lose the next election badly. Trump was the last hope for the Brexiteers and his cronies around Nigel Farage, and under the Trump administration, the Conservatives would be compelled to choose one or the other. However, under Biden, they can still balance things out, hoping that the Brexiteers will see by themselves that the hard Brexit is doomed to fail, but the UK could be saved if they moderate their stance over Brexit. 2021 is the turning point not only for Brexit but for the UK as well. Will the Conservatives find the way out with or without Boris Johnson? We will see.